Eureka!

Tuesday afternoon I flew to Sydney to attend the 20th annual Australian Museum Eureka Prizes for science. Our project with the Sydney Coastal Councils Group on climate change adaptation was a finalist in the category of Innovative Solutions to Climate Change. While victory wasn't anticipated, it was a good opportunity to clip on the old bow tie, and sample some (or quite a lot actually) Australian wines. As it happened, the fates smiled upon us, and we walked away with the prize, which included $10,000 which we now have to figure out how to reinvest. We had the honour of shaking hands with the premier of NSW, but in all honesty, I would have preferred to have met Cate Blanchett, who presented the People's Choice Award. Oh well, there's always next year. . .

Additional photos here

Climate Change and Social Justice

Melbourne University Press has published a new book entitled Climate Change and Social Justice. The edited volume covers the gambit of issues (responsibility for climate change, intergenerational equity, health, environmental refugees, adaptation and equity in climate policy) from the likes of Ross Garnaut, David Karoly and Jon Barnett among others. I bring up the rear with Chapter 12: Equitable Climate Policy in a Dangerous World. The Introduction by Jeremy Moss provides a good overview of the various chapters.

Get your copy here.

It's not as Glamorous as it Looks

On Tuesday, 9 June I woke up at 4:45 in the Victorian regional town of Mildura (after completing four days of karate training). I proceeded to drive to the aiport and catch a flight back home to Melbourne. Once back in Melbourne, I took a taxi home, where I then jumped on a train to the office, where I picked up a car and drove to Tooradin. Once there, I spent an hour of so standing around in the cold, the wind and the rain trying to come up with clever things to say. The purpose of that long story is that it explains why I've got bags under my eyes in the following video:

On the Air

A podcast interview discussing my work recent work on assessing climate change vulnerability in the Sydney, Australia region is now available here.

Carbon and Methane in '07

Carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere continued their upward march last year, and methane showed new signs of life, with concentrations rising for the first time since 1998. This should serve as a reminder that the atmosphere is rather oblivious to all the talk about greenhouse gas emissions reductions.

Hit Me Baby One More Time

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change issues its first assessment report in 1990. Subsequent efforts have been released every 5 to 6 years for the past two decades, culminating in 2007's Fourth Assessment Report. And now the IPCC has indicated (through its report on the Future of the IPCC from the recent 28th meeting in Budapest) that the crowd has called out for more. The Fifth Assessment Report is to be rolled out between 2013 and 2014. That's still a long way off, but I foresee the AR5 going the way of the AR4: slightly wider ranges of uncertainty with respect to climate projections (part of the persistent trend toward increasing uncertainty associated with IPCC work), but no fundamental shift or ground-breaking discovery that would cause us to look at the issue and its challenges in a new light. This makes be wonder what benefits various nations see in continung such reporting over such short time intervals (i.e., there appears to be absolutely no correlation between scientific evidence and willingness of nations to pursue greenhouse gas emissions reductions) and will a time ever come when the IPCC publishes a report that says "well, six years have past and we don't really have anything new to say - see you next time".

There's Gold in Them Thar Icebergs

While the environmental implications of climate change n the Arctic have received significant attention in recent years, only now are folks starting to focus on the economic implications. Hugo Miller recently reported on the gold rush taking place in the far north as global warming increases access to some of the last great untapped mineral deposits on the planet. The irony of the situation appears lost on the mining and petroleum industries.

New Publication: Climate Change and Australian Runoff

Preston, B.L. and Jones, R.N. (2008) Evaluating sources ofuncertainty in Australian runoff projections. Advances in Water Resources Volume 31, Issue 5, Pages 758-775.

Abstract
Generating estimates of the future impacts of climate change on human and natural systems is confounded by cascading uncertainties which propagate through the impact assessment. Here, a simple stochastic rainfall–runoff model representing 238 river basins on the Australian continent was used to assess the sensitivity of the risk of runoff changes to various sources of uncertainty. Uncertainties included global mean temperature change, greenhouse gas stabilisation targets, catchment sensitivities to climatic change, and the seasonality of runoff, rainfall, and evaporation. Model simulations provided estimates of the first-order risk of climate change to Australian catchments, with several regions having high likelihoods of experiencing significant reductions in future runoff. Climate uncertainty (at global and regional scales) was identified as the dominant driving force in hydrological risk assessments. Uncertainties in catchment sensitivities to climatic changes also influenced risk, provided they were sufficiently large, whereas structural assumptions of the model were generally negligible. Collectively, these results indicate that rigorous assessment of climate risk to water resources over relatively long time-scales is largely a function of adequately exploring the uncertainty space of future climate changes.

Victoria Leads

Victoria has been in the spotlight as of late when it comes to taking on climate change. Recent initiatives include:

1) Opening of the Otway Project - the world’s largest research and carbon geosequestration demonstration project.

2) A $72 million increase in investment for the state's renewable energy projects.

3) A partnership with the Clinton Climate Initiative to explore clean, renewable energy projects in the state.

Garnaut & Carbon Trading

Against the appropriate back-drop of a record heat wavee in southern Australia (in March of all months, with Adelaide experiencing 15 consecutive days>35 degrees)Ross Garnaut released another interim report. This one, with thoughts on emissions trading, broke the news that carbon trading would bring higher energy prices (duh!, after all that's the point right). However, he also indicated that the big emitters and energy utilities shouldn't receive a free lunch in the way of carbon permit hand-outs (as suggested by the last government).

Let the Games Begin

The South Australia Supreme Court has fired an opening volley in what is likely to be come a common legal battleground in coming years: what are local governments legally entitled (or obligated) to do to control coastal development in light of climate change and sea-level rise?

"'The rejection of a subdivision on Yorke Peninsula, west of Adelaide, is likely to be repeated across the country as councils progressively write climate change provisions into their planning regulations. The South Australian Supreme Court cited local sea level rises of 30cm over the next 50 years in ruling yesterday against Northcape Properties' plans for 80 holiday homes at Marion Bay, 150km west of Adelaide. The changes - which the court ruled was expected, not merely a probability - would encroach on the proposal's "erosion buffer and coastal reserve'."

This decision represents one of the first of its kind in Australia, but certainly not the last.

Beyond Kyoto, Oi, Oi, Oi

Climate change policy in Australia continues to be led from the bottom-up with the latest polling from the Climate Institute indicating 73% of Australians are ready to move beyond Kyoto Protocol commitments for greenhouse gas emissions reductions. However, those 73% weren't asked how much they'd be wiling to pay for those reductions. In fact, when asked whether they'd support action even if people's jobs were on the line, the number dropped to 38%. So as with most purchasing decisions, there is a difference between what people want and what they think they can afford. . .

Garnaut Review: Coming Attraction

Prof Garnaut let some early bits of thinking out of the bag last week with an interim report on his review of the costs and benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation in Australia.

Once you read through the thirty odd pages that dance around the specifics and glance at the various illustrative figures that lack any numbers on the axes, one finds the punchline in the way of recommendations:

"First, Australia should be committing within the timetable of the Bali roadmap to emissions reductions for 2020 and 2050 that are fully comparable in terms of adjustment effort to commitments being made by other developed countries. The State and Commonwealth Government commitments to 60 per cent reduction in year 2000 emissions by 2050, with corresponding interim targets, may be shown to be appropriate in that context. Second, the recent developments in the science summarised earlier in this Interim Report, and the work of the Review on current and prospective emissions scenarios in the absence of major policy changes, suggests that ambitions for mitigation will need to rise way beyond those embodied in the Bali roadmap if high probabilities of damaging climate change are to be avoided."

Well, that's a pretty clear preview of what the final report is likely to communicate. Now if folks can figure out how to actually pull off such reductions. . .

Another Hot One

NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies has completed it's summary of the global climate of 2007, and ranks the year as the second warmest in the instrumental record.

Hansen and his crew remind us that 2007 holds this ranking despite the emergence of a La Nina in the Pacific (which usually contributes to cooler conditions). Furthermore, those who continue to blame solar activity as the culprit also continue to overlook the fact that solar irradiance has been declining for most of the decade. But the solar cycle is set to reverse, meaning the combination of higher solar output and continued increases in greenhouse gases will make for some warm years ahead.

Get Used to It

The Bureau of Meteorology's own Davy Jones caused a buzz last week when he suggested the ongoing drought in southern Australia may in fact be here to stay - a permanent shift in the climate rather than a blip caused by ENSO or some other climate anamoly.

Meanwhile, the drought smells a bit fishy over in Lake Boga, where 10,000 Murray cod, carp, redfin and yellow-belly have expired due to high summer temperatures combined with low lake levels.

Dramatic End

The end of 2007 brought interesting weather to Melbourne - first, three days of impressive rain which brought flooding to much of the state (including the streets of Melbourne and my own office building). This event suggested to me that rooves in Australia largely exist for decorative purposes, as they proved themselves to be rather incapable of keeping out rain. Actually, it seemed as if nothing in Melbourne works when it rains - the roads, the trains, the trams, the drainage systems, electricity. In short, semi-arid regions appear to cope with extreme rainfall about as well as Florida copes with a snow storm.

This drama was followed with miserably hot conditions between Christmas and the New Year. Temperatures reached 41C on the last day of the year (making it the hottest day of Victoria's hottest year on record), and temperatures are currently climbing back up toward 40C today.

Congratulations UNFCCC

In 1992, Article II of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change committed the world (both developed and developing countries alike)to "stabilisation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere." Granted, that left a bit of work in regard to figuring out what that goal means and how to achieve it. But, here we are 25 years later and what did our world leaders agree to at the Bali conference? A recognition that commitments to reductions need to be made, but no actual agreement on the size of those reductions or an actual commitment. 25 years of diplomacy and all the world has to show is a continued agreement that emissions need to be reduced (somehow), but very little in the way of actual actions to make such reductions. A US commitment to emissions reductions is perhaps just one Presidential election away, but that would still leave the big emitters in the developing world reluctant to come to the party. 50% reductions in emissions by 2050? That'll be the day. . .

SNAFU

This update from the ongoing negotiations in Bali suggests any future progress on international climate change policy aren't going to yield much in the way of a substantive agreement:

1) The US and Japan oppose mandatory cuts.
2) China and India oppose cuts for developing nations.
3) Meanwhile, Europe is pushing for developed world emissions reductions by 2020 that the developed world probably can't meet.

Sounds like a recipe for success!

'Tis the Season for Climate Stuff

With negotiations in Bali underway, The Age reports on Ross Garnaut, the man charged with executing what has appropriately been called the Garnaut Review - in other words, the Stern Review down under.

"The Review will examine the impacts of climate change on the Australian economy, and recommend medium to long-term policies and policy frameworks to improve the prospects for sustainable prosperity."

Meanwhile, the Climate Insitute released its own take on the costs of GHG mitigation, in a report which concluded that Australians can tackle climate change and continue to grow wealthier in the process. And in other news, CNN reports on the much publisised plight of the small-island states.

One Day, Two Talks

There's nothing I like better than a license to shoot my mouth off. Friday gave me two opportunities. First, I served as an "inspirational speaker" in the WOW! Program sponsored by the Education Foundation. I shared the short and winding road that took me from birth to my current position as a climate change researcher. Despite the many bits of wisdom I passed along, during Q&A, the boys in the yard were a bit more interested in my choice of film (they were quite disappointed that I hand't seen Saw or Saw II, III or IV), but hey, at least I got them thinking.

From there, I moved on to Melbourne Uni to participate in a panel discussion on climate change as part of Engineer's without Borders annual conference.