Garnaut Review: Coming Attraction

Prof Garnaut let some early bits of thinking out of the bag last week with an interim report on his review of the costs and benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation in Australia.

Once you read through the thirty odd pages that dance around the specifics and glance at the various illustrative figures that lack any numbers on the axes, one finds the punchline in the way of recommendations:

"First, Australia should be committing within the timetable of the Bali roadmap to emissions reductions for 2020 and 2050 that are fully comparable in terms of adjustment effort to commitments being made by other developed countries. The State and Commonwealth Government commitments to 60 per cent reduction in year 2000 emissions by 2050, with corresponding interim targets, may be shown to be appropriate in that context. Second, the recent developments in the science summarised earlier in this Interim Report, and the work of the Review on current and prospective emissions scenarios in the absence of major policy changes, suggests that ambitions for mitigation will need to rise way beyond those embodied in the Bali roadmap if high probabilities of damaging climate change are to be avoided."

Well, that's a pretty clear preview of what the final report is likely to communicate. Now if folks can figure out how to actually pull off such reductions. . .